Autumn Storm in Risk Management: When the ‘Renewal’ Race Begins

Risk Management and Insurance/ Risk Management and Risk Data – Can an effective method help?

November 2025, Stephan Dorner

It begins almost imperceptibly, this gentle farewell of summer. The days are getting shorter, as if someone were secretly pulling at the edges of the sky to collect the light piece by piece. The morning sun loses its harsh heat and instead settles around the shoulders like a warm shawl – still comforting, but already carrying the hint of a warning: it will not stay this way for long. And then, slowly, autumn takes command.

It is a time that cries out for retreat. For teacups warming the hands with steam, for books finally being read, for blankets being pulled over the knees while outside the wind plucks the last leaves from the branches. Everything seems to slow down, as if the world were taking a breath for a moment – a collective sigh after the hot, restless summer months. One might think nature is whispering to us: “Now is the time to come to rest. Lie down, as I do. Gather strength for what lies ahead.”

But appearances are deceptive.

For while the world outside is bathed in soft sepia, while walkers in the parks bury their hands in their pockets and children trudge through piles of leaves with crunching steps – while all this is happening, things are brewing elsewhere. Not in the forests, not in the fields, but in the glass towers of financial hubs, in insurers’ back offices, in the strategy rooms of risk managers. Here, where numbers flicker across screens like autumn leaves in the wind, the hottest phase of the year begins now.

Autumn is not only the season of harvest – it is also the time of “Renewal”.

 “Renewal” – or: Why autumn in risk management is not a poetry album

What a word: “Renewal”. It sounds like freshness, like a new beginning, like a blank page.

But anyone who thinks that is mistaken.

For what truly defines this term is not the gentleness of the new, but the relentless dynamics of change. “Renewal” is not a soft spring breeze – it is an autumn storm sweeping through familiar structures and putting everything to the test. It is not about starting anew, but about defending what exists – or turning it upside down before it blows up in your face.

It is the time when contracts are renegotiated. When risks are reassessed. When companies and insurers sit at the table like poker players reshuffling their cards – while the leaves fall outside. Whoever hesitates here, whoever is unprepared, risks having the best coverage snatched away from under their nose. Or worse: suddenly standing unprotected when the first winter storm arrives.

In a nutshell – when the mild wind turns into a hurricane

Imagine you are drifting along on a nutshell. A fragile thing, hardly more than a toy that rocks at the slightest wave. Around you: an ocean of figures, clauses and conditions. The sun is still shining – that deceptive autumn sky pretending that everything is peaceful. But then, suddenly, the wind shifts.

At first it is only a faint whisper. A mild draft that lifts the papers on your desk ever so slightly. “Oh,” you think, “that will pass.” But then the pressure builds. The waves rise higher. What just seemed like a harmless trade wind turns out to be an unpredictable squall – and before you know it, a hurricane is lashing over the deck of your nutshell, tearing the last straws of hope from your head and scattering them like withered leaves.

Welcome to “Renewal”.

A confession – and a justification

“Too dramatic?” you may now ask. “Exaggerated?” Yes. Maybe.

But you know what? Better a sharp image that sticks than pages of technical jargon that fades in memory like the rustle of the last autumn leaves. Better an anecdote that makes you think than a dry textbook no one would voluntarily pick up.

So back to the topic: Renewal is a central process in industrial insurance that usually takes place annually (in exceptional cases every two years). It is directly linked to a company’s risk management. However, there is a structural problem:

In many companies, responsibility for risk management and insurance procurement is organizationally separated – sometimes even physically so far apart that exchange between the responsible employees happens by chance, for example at lunch. But even then, relevant topics such as operational risk transfer are rarely discussed. Instead, everyday conversations dominate – for example about weather forecasts or other trivial matters. The attitude of “We’re insured anyway” means that important risk aspects are not actively managed, but simply outsourced.

The problem with probabilities – using weather forecasts as an example

An interesting example of misleading risk communication can be found in Gerd Gigerenzer’s book “Risk” (which I am summarizing here in simplified form):

Almost everyone today uses smartphone weather apps that provide us with seemingly precise forecasts: rain probabilities such as “40% chance of rain tomorrow” are shown every day. But what does that actually mean?

• Does 40% rain mean that it will rain for 40% of the day?

• Or that it will rain in 40% of the region?

• Or that it rained on 40% of the days with similar weather patterns?

Most users interpret this information incorrectly – much like many professionals are unable to communicate risk data in a way that is understandable. The problem: probabilities are often communicated unclearly, so recipients cannot make sense of them.

Why this is dangerous: statistics and fortune-cookie wisdom

This leads to a fundamental problem: when we rely on statistics or forecasts whose significance is unclear, we are walking on thin ice. A comparison:

• The meaningfulness of some statistics is as vague as the sayings in a fortune cookie at the Chinese restaurant.

  • Example: “Be patient – it will pay off” (nice, but empty).

  • A more honest version would be: “If you think you’ll find deep life wisdom here, you’ve been mistaken.”

Translated into risk management, this means: if companies do not understand risk data or interpret it incorrectly, they make decisions based on a false sense of security – similar to someone leaving their umbrella at home because the app predicts “50% chance of rain,” without knowing what that really means.

But what does practice look like when it is not about vague forecasts, but about concrete risk assessments? Every insurance company has its own risk management department that deals intensively with the risk-relevant circumstances of its clients. And when the year draws to a close – when the “Renewal” period begins, the insurers’ peak season – “then the emperor sends out his soldiers.”

The “emperor’s soldiers”: fire protection engineers on inspection rounds

This refers to fire protection engineers – equipped with a clipboard, safety vest and trained eye, moving through the operations to identify risk potential. Their main focus is fire protection, a central but not the only decisive factor in a company’s overall risk situation.

These engineers are absolute experts in their field – but, as in medicine, everyone has their specialization here too: . A dentist will not perform heart surgery, and a psychiatrist is better off not doing a root canal. Likewise, the fire protection engineer focuses on their core competence – while other equally important risk aspects sometimes fall out of view. The problem: what is not in view is often overlooked – and that can leave critical gaps in the overall risk assessment.

Why this is dangerous: when partial aspects distort the whole

A one-sided focus on fire protection (or any other single risk) can lead to other sources of danger – such as cyber risks, supply chain disruptions or liability issues – being underestimated. But even if all risk areas are in view, there is a further problem: the tools used to create these analyses are often outdated.

Assessments are often created using classic programs such as Word and Excel – solid, but limited in what they can convey. There are hardly any uniform standards or binding assessment criteria. Direct exchange between companies and insurers about which protective measures have what effect on the premium is rare. For many companies, it therefore remains unclear which measures are actually worthwhile – and which are merely formal hurdles.

In addition, these assessments are then passed on in the market, which means that the depiction of a risk develops differently from one insurer to another. While insurers, out of natural caution, calculate conservatively, industry often wants a more differentiated view. If the analysis time is then short – as it is in the hectic Renewal phase – the assessment becomes even more cautious. That is understandable, but not always advantageous for companies in economically challenging times.

This creates a situation in which well-intentioned caution unintentionally leads to higher costs or worse insurance terms. In other industries, such a process would be hard to imagine – but in insurance it has become established, not out of ill will, but by system.

Two sides of the same coin: different perspectives, common goal

While the “emperor” continues to send out his “soldiers” to assess risks, a paradoxical impression remains:

• Insurers and policyholders actually pursue the same goal – fair, realistic risk protection.

• But they view it from different perspectives – one side with a focus on risk prevention, the other on economic efficiency and practicality.

That is exactly where the skill lies: shaping these different perspectives into a shared, fair picture – one that serves both sides and does not create unnecessary costs or gaps in protection. Because in the end it is not about who is right, but about what truly protects.

From system to strategy: when the godfather of risks speaks

The different perspectives of insurers and companies often lead to a paradoxical situation: in theory, both sides should develop solutions together – but in practice, the way something is presented sometimes decides between success and failure. And then the next step after the visit from the “emperor’s soldiers” feels like a scene from a classic film: “An offer you can’t refuse.”

The “offer” nobody refuses – until it is too late

But what happens if it later turns out that the risk was not insurable at all? Not because it was too large, but because the first appearance was not convincing enough?

• Presented too unappealingly?

• Prepared too unstructured?

• Argued too little with the future in mind?

That is exactly where the problem lies: risk information reaches insurers via brokers – and here the rule is: more is not always better. Too many details – or the wrong details – can hinder a clear presentation of risk more than they help.

The underwriter and the mountain of paper: why clarity beats quantity

In the peak of Renewal season, every insurer faces a flood of new requests. Even the type of business often decides whether a risk is considered at all. Add to that data on processes, fire protection, business interruption, product complexity, locations and more. This information lands on underwriters’ desks – and there it grows into digital mountains of files that hardly anyone can fully grasp:

• Unstructured

• Confusing

• Often without a clear summary

In this situation, other risks that are presented clearly, precisely and with a coherent thread appear much more attractive. A rejection then sometimes follows faster than the policyholder can understand –

• completely unjustified from their point of view,

• but from the insurer’s perspective simply a matter of priority.

The other candidate was simply better prepared.

The solution: taking the lead instead of just playing along

To avoid this pitfall, a conscious risk strategy is needed:

1. Clear risk assessment (What are the real sources of danger?)

2. Understandable measures (How are risks actively managed?)

3. Continuous development (How is the risk profile improved over the long term?)

Anyone who knows their risk, identifies opportunities for improvement and works on them in a targeted way increases their attractiveness as a policyholder – sustainably.

One could say: a risk without strategy is like a film without a director.

The plot may be exciting, the cast convincing – but without clear direction, the thread is missing.

By contrast, those who take the lead themselves and deliberately tell the story of their company ensure that insurers not only listen, but eventually also gladly choose a leading role.

Conclusion: from the “offer you can’t refuse” to a conscious decision

The Renewal phase is not fate, but an opportunity – if you use it correctly. Because in the end it is not about accepting just any offer, but about shaping the best offer – through clarity, structure and a convincing risk strategy.

An offer you can’t refuse – or can you?

After this little detour into the world of Hollywood comparisons – where risk presentations end like a bad casting show performance and underwriters judge with the ruthless severity of America’s Got Talent jurors – it is time to pull back the curtain. For while we are still basking in the illusion that everything is under control with a perfect risk presentation, the real drama is already unfolding in the background: the risk transfer itself – and its unvarnished realities.

This reveals an almost tragicomic paradox: what comes across as an indispensable offer – “You can’t refuse!”, it whispers seductively like Don Corleone himself – often turns out, on closer inspection, to be nothing more than an expensive placebo. The insurance policy, proudly presented like a shield against all adversity, then resembles that famous Trojan horse – shining and comforting on the outside, but full of unresolved problems on the inside, which only come to light when it is already too late.

The crux is that we have learned to equate being insured with being safe – as if signing a contract were equivalent to eliminating all danger. But what if this equation is fundamentally wrong? What if we are lulling ourselves into a false sense of security while the actual risks remain uninsured – not because they are too large, but because we communicate them worse than a teenager writes their first love notes?

Imagine this: there sits the underwriter, armed with a coffee cup and a healthy dose of skepticism, and in front of them towers a mountain of data – as unstructured as a student presentation at the last minute, as illegible as a doctor’s letter, and so overloaded with jargon that even the author can no longer make sense of it. In that moment, when patience is thin and eyes are tired, the fate of your risk is often decided. Not by objective criteria, but by who manages to stand out in the flood of information as understandable and attractive.

And then – bang! – comes the rejection. Or worse still: the expensive approval that turns out to have gaps when a loss occurs. Suddenly you are left with the feeling of having been cheated – not by the insurer, but by your own naivety in believing that a policy alone could solve all problems.

Because here is the hard truth: an insurance policy is not a shield, but an emergency kit. Risk transfer is not risk elimination, but risk relocation – and that means handing responsibility over to someone who, in an emergency, may not pay as generously as hoped. The best policy is useless if the real problem – poor risk communication, unclear data, lack of strategy – remains unresolved.

So: what to do?

• Start by not only transferring risks, but truly understanding them – in a way that not only your own risk manager, but also the underwriter, grasps immediately.

• Do not just collect data, but prepare it so that it reads not like a confused monologue, but like a clear story.

• And you could – perhaps this is the most important step – view insurance not as the solution, but as one building block in a larger strategy. Because anyone who relies only on the policy will eventually find that it has more holes than Swiss cheese.

In the end, the question remains: do you want to keep trusting the “offer you can’t refuse” – and risk it turning out to be an empty shell? Or do you take the lead yourself – and make sure your company is not just insured, but truly protected?

Because one thing is certain: the best insurance in the world is useless if the risk was assessed incorrectly. And sometimes – and this is the truly bitter pill – the biggest risk factor is not the risk itself, but the illusion that you already have it under control.